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What this means. A wallet put $31.2k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 59% chance. It won. This wallet has only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$31.2k
BUY Yes @ 59¢ · 52,817 shares
Size ≥ $10kEarly (>24h before close)Fresh wallet2× this wallet's usual betOther
What happened
Wallet Jake540 took Yes (buy) for $31.2k at an average 59¢. At that price the market implied a 59% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag called it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $31.2k+1
Fresh wallet (new or ≤5 markets)+2
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 59¢ means
59%chance the market gave
−144American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 59¢
- Implied odds
- 59.0%
- Size
- $31.2k
- Placed
- Feb 26, 13:13 EST
- Market close
- Feb 28, 04:34 EST
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- Jake540
- Tx
- 0x95bf0fb4…
This wallet's graded record
1/1+41.0 pts
expected 0.6 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade +41 ptsYes price · entry 59¢ · resolved Yes
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $10.8k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $18.4k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $27.5k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $38.8k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $29.9k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $106.0k 2.1× usual |
excluded |