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+$948No · avg 80¢ → 97.2¢ · $5,359+$783Yes · avg 12¢ → 76¢ · $933−$2,041Yes · avg 21¢ → 4.5¢ · $573+$115Yes · avg 4.1¢ → 5.2¢ · $525+$27Yes · avg 90¢ → 98.2¢ · $329−$928Yes · avg 32¢ → 5.5¢ · $193 · 0 proven with, 1 against+$5Yes · avg 91¢ → 97.5¢ · $73−$141Yes · avg 14¢ → 3.5¢ · $46
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 6. The prices it paid implied about 3.6 wins, so it did -10.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 6 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-10.7 pts
Called / graded
3/6
Expected from price
3.6
Flagged volume
$827.0k
Sample size6 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±19.7 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$40k6 graded bets in the order they resolved · 3 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Lakers vs. Warriors at 60¢) and the edge is -20.8 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
0% vs 54% · n=3
60–80¢
100% vs 67% · n=3
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$917.6k
Last 30 days −$284 · $70.95M volume · 47,220 trades · since Oct 02, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$14.71M
Open P&L · 500 positions
−$13.28M
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
387d
2059 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 6 | 3 | 3.6 | -10.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcats | MED BUY Purdue Boilermakers @ 51¢ | $61.5k 2.0× usual |
excluded |
| Pistons vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Timberwolves @ 45¢ | $33.9k | excluded |
 Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougars | LOW BUY Illinois Fighting Illini @ 42¢ | $52.1k | excluded |
| Rockets vs. Wizards | LOW BUY Rockets @ 89¢ | $62.3k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| Spread: Lakers (-12.5) | MED BUY Lakers @ 52¢ | $25.4k | excluded |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.2¢ | $17.9k | excluded |
| Lakers vs. Warriors | LOW BUY Lakers @ 60¢ | $13.2k | called |
 US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | MED BUY Yes @ 92.6¢ | $116.1k 3.8× usual |
excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Thunder | MED BUY Thunder @ 70¢ | $45.6k | excluded |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | LOW BUY Pistons @ 73¢ | $80.3k 2.7× usual |
excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Thunder @ 74¢ | $22.2k | called |
| Spread: Nuggets (-3.5) | LOW BUY Nuggets @ 49¢ | $32.8k | excluded |
| Thunder vs. Raptors | LOW BUY Raptors @ 56¢ | $13.4k | missed |
| Thunder vs. Raptors | LOW BUY Raptors @ 54¢ | $30.2k | missed |
| US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ | $11.9k | excluded |
 Seahawks vs. Patriots | MED BUY Seahawks @ 68¢ | $170.0k 5.6× usual |
called |
 UFC 325: Fiziev vs. Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) | LOW BUY Fiziev @ 52¢ | $13.2k | missed |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW BUY No @ 81¢ | $14.4k | missed |
| Patriots vs. Broncos | LOW BUY Patriots @ 65¢ | $10.5k | excluded |
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