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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 2.5 wins, so it did -36.9 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-36.9 pts
Called / graded
1/4
Expected from price
2.5
Flagged volume
$1.44M
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±24.1 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$699.8k
Last 30 days +$0 · $18.79M volume · 3,455 trades · since Jan 28, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$699.8k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
44%
189 closed
Wallet age · markets
269d
188 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 4 | 1 | 2.5 | -36.9 pts |
History
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x3cc654…