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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.5 wins, so it did -54.3 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-54.3 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.5
Flagged volume
$399.6k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±49.8 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$73.1k
Last 30 days −$13.7k · $6.37M volume · 2,176 trades · since Nov 22, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$157.3k
Open P&L · 86 positions
−$52.0k
Closed-position win rate
50%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
336d
602 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | -54.3 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-27? | LOW BUY Yes @ 54¢ | $69.8k 2.4× usual |
missed |
 Timberwolves vs. Clippers | LOW SELL Timberwolves @ 99.9¢ | $65.6k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
| Timberwolves vs. Clippers | LOW BUY Timberwolves @ 76¢ | $49.7k | excluded |
| Heat vs. 76ers | LOW SELL 76ers @ 99¢ | $33.2k | excluded |
| Heat vs. 76ers | LOW BUY 76ers @ 59¢ | $19.9k | called |
| Celtics vs. Nuggets | MED BUY Celtics @ 46¢ | $38.0k | excluded |
| Cavaliers vs. Bucks | LOW SELL Bucks @ 99¢ | $37.9k | excluded |
| Cavaliers vs. Bucks | LOW BUY Bucks @ 41¢ | $13.7k | called |
| Celtics vs. Nuggets | LOW SELL Celtics @ 42¢ | $13.7k | called |
 Rams vs. Seahawks | LOW BUY Rams @ 45¢ | $24.7k | excluded |
| Rams vs. Seahawks | LOW SELL Seahawks @ 55¢ | $16.4k | missed |
| Rams vs. Seahawks | LOW BUY Seahawks @ 57¢ | $17.0k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xa07c39…