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ClaudeAI

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 6. The prices it paid implied about 5.7 wins, so it did -45.3 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 6 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-45.3 pts
Called / graded
3/6
Expected from price
5.7
Flagged volume
$12.19M
Sample size6 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±8.6 pts std. error.

Graded P&L at their stakes

−$109k
6 graded bets in the order they resolved · 3 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
−$109k$0$3k
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? at 94¢) and the edge is -55.7 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
80–100¢
50% vs 95% · n=6
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$254.5k
Last 30 days +$0 · $33.37M volume · 7,344 trades · since Dec 09, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
−$193.7k
Open P&L · 6 positions
−$60.8k
Closed-position win rate
89%
44 closed
Wallet age · markets
319d
48 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Other302.9-96.4 pts
Economy332.8+5.8 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 82¢ $20.1k82% 238d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?LOW BUY No @ 99¢ $23.6k99% 239d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢ $130.7k99% 239d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?MED SELL No @ 95.2¢ $49.3k5% 239d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?MED SELL No @ 91¢ $40.2k9% 239d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢ $91.0k99% 239d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?MED BUY No @ 95.6¢ $42.8k96% 239d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?MED BUY No @ 91¢ $40.2k91% 239d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 98.3¢ $12.3k2% 241d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢ $211.7k
2.3× usual
99% 241d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 97.9¢ $53.2k98% 241d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 95¢ $51.0k95% 241d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?LOW BUY No @ 97.9¢ $54.0k98% 241d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?LOW BUY No @ 97.7¢ $37.4k98% 241d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $1.02M
11.2× usual
100% 242d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?MED BUY No @ 99.7¢ $298.8k
3.3× usual
100% 242d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?MED BUY No @ 99.5¢ $302.6k
3.3× usual
100% 242d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.1¢ $27.4k98% 242d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?MED BUY No @ 99.9¢ $268.4k
2.9× usual
100% 243d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?MED BUY No @ 99.3¢ $363.6k
4.0× usual
99% 243d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 96.5¢ $21.9k96% 243d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.5¢ $73.7k98% 243d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $56.6k100% 244d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?LOW BUY No @ 96.9¢ $21.3k97% 244d agomissed
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.7¢ $10.0k99% 244d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?LOW BUY No @ 96.5¢ $34.6k96% 245d agomissed
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 97.8¢ $10.1k98% 245d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?MED BUY No @ 99.9¢ $576.5k
6.3× usual
100% 245d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢ $198.1k
2.2× usual
99% 245d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.7¢ $118.4k99% 245d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?MED BUY No @ 95.8¢ $56.3k96% 245d agomissed
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.5¢ $20.5k98% 245d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $156.8k100% 246d agoexcluded
Government shutdown on Saturday?MED BUY No @ 99.8¢ $468.2k
5.1× usual
100% 251d agoexcluded
Government shutdown on Saturday?LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ $31.2k100% 251d agoexcluded
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January?MED SELL No @ 99.8¢ $458.2k
5.0× usual
0% 263d agoexcluded
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $258.5k
2.8× usual
100% 263d agoexcluded
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $34.7k100% 263d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 97.9¢ $77.1k2% 265d agoexcluded
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.4¢ $42.6k99% 265d agoexcluded
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.4¢ $150.2k1% 265d agoexcluded
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $131.3k100% 266d agoexcluded
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $99.9k0% 268d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ $498.5k
5.5× usual
100% 268d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.6¢ $284.3k
3.1× usual
100% 268d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.5¢ $98.5k100% 268d agoexcluded
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $249.3k
2.7× usual
100% 268d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.6¢ $506.7k
5.6× usual
100% 269d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.4¢ $497.0k
5.5× usual
99% 269d agoexcluded
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $2.00M
22.0× usual
100% 269d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 95.1¢ $13.1k95% 282d agocalled
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 94.1¢ $19.6k94% 283d agocalled
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 93.5¢ $15.5k94% 284d agocalled
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ $874.1k
9.6× usual
100% 317d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ $199.0k
2.2× usual
100% 318d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ $214.5k
2.4× usual
100% 318d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?MED BUY No @ 99.3¢ $475.2k
5.2× usual
99% 318d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 82¢$20.1k
LOW ClaudeAI · 238d ago
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?excluded
BUY No @ 99¢$23.6k
LOW ClaudeAI · 239d ago
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.2¢$130.7k
LOW ClaudeAI · 239d ago
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 95.2¢$49.3k
MED ClaudeAI · 239d ago
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 91¢$40.2k
MED ClaudeAI · 239d ago
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 98.9¢$91.0k
LOW ClaudeAI · 239d ago
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 95.6¢$42.8k
MED ClaudeAI · 239d ago
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 91¢$40.2k
MED ClaudeAI · 239d ago
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 98.3¢$12.3k
LOW ClaudeAI · 241d ago
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.2¢$211.7k
LOW ClaudeAI · 241d ago
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 97.9¢$53.2k
LOW ClaudeAI · 241d ago
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 95¢$51.0k
LOW ClaudeAI · 241d ago
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?excluded
BUY No @ 97.9¢$54.0k
LOW ClaudeAI · 241d ago
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?excluded
BUY No @ 97.7¢$37.4k
LOW ClaudeAI · 241d ago
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$1.02M
LOW ClaudeAI · 242d ago
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.7¢$298.8k
MED ClaudeAI · 242d ago
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.5¢$302.6k
MED ClaudeAI · 242d ago
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 98.1¢$27.4k
LOW ClaudeAI · 242d ago
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$268.4k
MED ClaudeAI · 243d ago
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.3¢$363.6k
MED ClaudeAI · 243d ago
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 96.5¢$21.9k
LOW ClaudeAI · 243d ago
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 98.5¢$73.7k
LOW ClaudeAI · 243d ago
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$56.6k
LOW ClaudeAI · 244d ago
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?missed
BUY No @ 96.9¢$21.3k
LOW ClaudeAI · 244d ago
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 98.7¢$10.0k
LOW ClaudeAI · 244d ago
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?missed
BUY No @ 96.5¢$34.6k
LOW ClaudeAI · 245d ago
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 97.8¢$10.1k
LOW ClaudeAI · 245d ago
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$576.5k
MED ClaudeAI · 245d ago
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 98.9¢$198.1k
LOW ClaudeAI · 245d ago
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 98.7¢$118.4k
LOW ClaudeAI · 245d ago
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?missed
BUY No @ 95.8¢$56.3k
MED ClaudeAI · 245d ago
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 98.5¢$20.5k
LOW ClaudeAI · 245d ago
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$156.8k
LOW ClaudeAI · 246d ago
Government shutdown on Saturday?excluded
BUY No @ 99.8¢$468.2k
MED ClaudeAI · 251d ago
Government shutdown on Saturday?excluded
BUY No @ 99.6¢$31.2k
LOW ClaudeAI · 251d ago
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January?excluded
SELL No @ 99.8¢$458.2k
MED ClaudeAI · 263d ago
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January?excluded
BUY No @ 99.8¢$258.5k
LOW ClaudeAI · 263d ago
US government shutdown Saturday?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$34.7k
LOW ClaudeAI · 263d ago
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 97.9¢$77.1k
LOW ClaudeAI · 265d ago
US government shutdown Saturday?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.4¢$42.6k
LOW ClaudeAI · 265d ago
US government shutdown Saturday?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.4¢$150.2k
LOW ClaudeAI · 265d ago
US government shutdown Saturday?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$131.3k
LOW ClaudeAI · 266d ago
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 99.9¢$99.9k
LOW ClaudeAI · 268d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.7¢$498.5k
MED ClaudeAI · 268d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.6¢$284.3k
LOW ClaudeAI · 268d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.5¢$98.5k
LOW ClaudeAI · 268d ago
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$249.3k
LOW ClaudeAI · 268d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.6¢$506.7k
LOW ClaudeAI · 269d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.4¢$497.0k
LOW ClaudeAI · 269d ago
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$2.00M
LOW ClaudeAI · 269d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 95.1¢$13.1k
LOW ClaudeAI · 282d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 94.1¢$19.6k
LOW ClaudeAI · 283d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 93.5¢$15.5k
LOW ClaudeAI · 284d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.6¢$874.1k
LOW ClaudeAI · 317d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.6¢$199.0k
LOW ClaudeAI · 318d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.6¢$214.5k
LOW ClaudeAI · 318d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.3¢$475.2k
MED ClaudeAI · 318d ago

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