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What this means. A wallet put $302.6k on No, at a price that gave it a 100% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 6 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$302.6k
BUY No @ 99.5¢ · 304,043 shares in 3 fills
Size ≥ $250kHeavy favorite3 fills in 1hLate (<1h before start)3.3× this wallet's usual betOther
What happened
Wallet ClaudeAI took No (buy) for $302.6k at an average 99.5¢. At that price the market implied a 100% chance for that side. The market resolved No. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $302.6k+3
Near-certain price-2
3 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 100¢ means
100%chance the market gave
—American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 99.5¢
- Implied odds
- 99.5%
- Size
- $302.6k
- Placed
- Feb 23, 19:58 EST
- Market close
- Jan 30, 19:00 EST
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- ClaudeAI
- Tx
- 0xae7d3ac9…
This wallet's graded record
3/6-45.3 pts
expected 5.7 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $17.6k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $60.2k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $77.7k 3.2× usual |
excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $19.0k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? | MED BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $1.01M 26.3× usual |
excluded |