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What this means. A wallet put $54.0k on No, at a price that gave it a 98% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 6 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$54.0k
BUY No @ 97.9¢ · 55,108 shares
Size ≥ $10kHeavy favoriteEarly (>24h before close)Other
What happened
Wallet ClaudeAI took No (buy) for $54.0k at an average 97.9¢. At that price the market implied a 98% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes. This trade isn't graded.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $54.0k+1
Near-certain price-2
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 98¢ means
98%chance the market gave
−4752American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 97.9¢
- Implied odds
- 97.9%
- Size
- $54.0k
- Placed
- Feb 24, 11:21 EST
- Market close
- Feb 27, 19:00 EST
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- ClaudeAI
- Tx
- 0x5678b6cd…
This wallet's graded record
3/6-45.3 pts
expected 5.7 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -98 ptsNo price · entry 97.9¢ · resolved Yes
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $83.5k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $103.1k 3.5× usual |
excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $40.0k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $11.1k | excluded |