← Wallets
−$468No · avg 91.8¢ → 91.5¢ · $164.1k+$4,914No · avg 92.8¢ → 96.9¢ · $118.8k+$3,923No · avg 90.2¢ → 94.5¢ · $87.3k−$124No · avg 85¢ → 84¢ · $53.0k+$2,069No · avg 91.3¢ → 95.3¢ · $49.0k−$559No · avg 92.8¢ → 91.5¢ · $40.4k+$2,031No · avg 90.5¢ → 95.5¢ · $38.4k+$1,222No · avg 92.8¢ → 96¢ · $36.6k
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 6 of 6. The prices it paid implied about 5.6 wins, so it did +7.5 pts better than the market expected. That's only 6 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +7.1 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+7.5 pts
Called / graded
6/6
Expected from price
5.6
Flagged volume
$309.5k
Sample size6 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±10.7 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$8k6 graded bets in the order they resolved · 6 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? at 90¢) and the edge is +7.1 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
80–100¢
100% vs 93% · n=6
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$26.6k
Last 30 days +$33.9k · $4.64M volume · 2,300 trades · since Feb 12, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$23.9k
Open P&L · 66 positions
+$28.5k
Closed-position win rate
91%
253 closed
Wallet age · markets
—
319 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto | 6 | 6 | 5.6 | +7.5 pts |
History
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