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+$1,297No · avg 89¢ → 93.5¢ · $24.3k+$44No · avg 91¢ → 97.3¢ · $686
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.4 wins, so it did -71.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-71.0 pts
Called / graded
0/2
Expected from price
1.4
Flagged volume
$64.1k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±27.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$96.3k
Last 30 days −$9,603 · $697.7k volume · 714 trades · since Dec 29, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$88.3k
Open P&L · 6 positions
−$8,581
Closed-position win rate
67%
21 closed
Wallet age · markets
299d
27 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 2 | 0 | 1.4 | -71.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 81¢ | $18.8k | excluded |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW BUY No @ 94¢ | $33.4k | missed |
 US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 48¢ | $11.9k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x29e46c…