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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 12. The prices it paid implied about 6.8 wins, so it did -23.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 12 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-23.5 pts
Called / graded
4/12
Expected from price
6.8
Flagged volume
$996.9k
Sample size12 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±13.8 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$347k12 graded bets in the order they resolved · 4 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Bulls vs. Heat at 61¢) and the edge is -29.2 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 37% · n=2
40–60¢
0% vs 51% · n=5
60–80¢
80% vs 71% · n=5
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$11.5k
Last 30 days +$0 · $81.92M volume · 66,734 trades · since Sep 09, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 400 closed
+$11.52M
Open P&L · 175 positions
−$1.75M
Closed-position win rate
100%
400 closed
Wallet age · markets
410d
1317 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 12 | 4 | 6.8 | -23.5 pts |
History
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