Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$631
Return on staked
-52.5%
Bets
4/12 won
Edge vs price
-23.5 pts ±13.8
Consistency check. Older half of bets: -13.8 pts (3/6). Newer half: -33.2 pts (1/6).
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Jan 28, 13:07 ESTFeb 27, 15:33 EST
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nuggets vs. Thunder | 73¢ | called | 239d ago |
| Panthers vs. Lightning | 35¢ | missed | 261d ago |
| Predators vs. Capitals | 39¢ | missed | 261d ago |
| 76ers vs. Clippers | 50¢ | missed | 264d ago |
| Maple Leafs vs. Flames | 47¢ | missed | 264d ago |
| 76ers vs. Clippers | 55¢ | missed | 264d ago |
| Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A | 72¢ | missed | 265d ago |
| Bulls vs. Heat | 61¢ | called | 265d ago |
| Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A | 50¢ | missed | 266d ago |
| Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A | 51¢ | missed | 266d ago |
| Warriors vs. Jazz | 73¢ | called | 269d ago |
| Warriors vs. Jazz | 76¢ | called | 269d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.