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What this means. A wallet put $40.0k on No, at a price that gave it a 74% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$40.0k
BUY No @ 74¢ · 54,000 shares in 2 fills
Size ≥ $10k2 fills in 1hEarly (>24h before close)Other
What happened
Wallet 0x96c6…34a2 took No (buy) for $40.0k at an average 74¢. At that price the market implied a 74% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $40.0k+1
2 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 74¢ means
74%chance the market gave
−286American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 74¢
- Implied odds
- 74.1%
- Size
- $40.0k
- Placed
- Dec 15, 03:12 EST
- Market close
- Feb 28, 06:32 EST
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- 0x96c6…34a2
- Tx
- 0x4b81d662…
This wallet's graded record
0/2-76.5 pts
expected 1.5 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $20.5k | excluded |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 95¢ | $19.5k | called |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 55¢ | $13.3k | missed |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 79¢ | $11.0k | missed |