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+$61.0kNo · avg 82¢ → 95¢ · $428.1k+$42.4kNo · avg 85¢ → 95.8¢ · $393.2k+$15.3kNo · avg 88¢ → 97.8¢ · $155.5k−$132.8kYes · avg 35¢ → 18¢ · $151.6k+$2,791Yes · avg 52¢ → 68¢ · $12.0k · 1 proven with, 0 against−$2,578Yes · avg 37¢ → 6.5¢ · $549
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 5 of 8. The prices it paid implied about 4.3 wins, so it did +9.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 8 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +2.9 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+9.0 pts
Called / graded
5/8
Expected from price
4.3
Flagged volume
$3.21M
Sample size8 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±17.0 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$648k8 graded bets in the order they resolved · 5 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Knicks vs. 76ers at 48¢) and the edge is +2.9 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 39% · n=2
40–60¢
100% vs 52% · n=4
60–80¢
100% vs 62% · n=1
80–100¢
0% vs 82% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$161.7k
Last 30 days +$33.8k · $25.46M volume · 15,543 trades · since Dec 18, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$3.64M
Open P&L · 52 positions
−$3.77M
Closed-position win rate
82%
34 closed
Wallet age · markets
310d
84 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 2 | 2 | 1.2 | +40.0 pts |
| Sports | 6 | 3 | 3.1 | -1.3 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Spurs vs. Thunder | MED BUY Spurs @ 39¢ | $107.8k 2.3× usual |
missed |
 UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) | MED BUY Khamzat Chimaev @ 81¢ | $386.4k 8.2× usual |
excluded |
| UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) | MED BUY Khamzat Chimaev @ 82¢ | $863.9k 18.4× usual |
missed |
| Knicks vs. 76ers | MED BUY Knicks @ 48¢ | $101.6k 2.2× usual |
called |
| Knicks vs. 76ers | MED BUY Knicks @ 50¢ | $35.9k | called |
| Knicks vs. 76ers | LOW BUY Knicks @ 50¢ | $33.2k | called |
| Lakers vs. Thunder | HIGH BUY Lakers @ 14¢ | $131.8k 2.8× usual |
excluded |
| Rockets vs. Lakers | HIGH BUY Rockets @ 40¢ | $294.4k 6.3× usual |
excluded |
 US forces enter Iran by April 30? | MED SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $619.7k 13.2× usual |
excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 64¢ | $50.0k | called |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 57¢ | $27.0k | called |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 63¢ | $12.4k | called |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 62¢ | $19.0k | called |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 62¢ | $44.0k | called |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $25.2k | called |
 BNP Paribas Open: Jack Draper vs Daniil Medvedev | LOW BUY Jack Draper @ 39¢ | $13.5k | missed |
 US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | MED BUY Yes @ 62¢ | $173.6k 3.7× usual |
called |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $70.9k | called |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 17¢ | $18.9k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 23¢ | $10.6k | excluded |
 Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic | MED SELL Alcaraz @ 70¢ | $27.5k | excluded |
| Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic | LOW SELL Alcaraz @ 70¢ | $21.0k | excluded |
| Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic | LOW BUY Alcaraz @ 74¢ | $74.0k | called |
| Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev | MED BUY Alcaraz @ 33¢ | $50.1k | excluded |
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