Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
+$142
Return on staked
+17.8%
Bets
5/8 won
Edge vs price
+9.0 pts ±17.0
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Feb 22, 13:18 ESTMay 26, 10:30 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spurs vs. Thunder | 39¢ | missed | 151d ago |
| UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) | 82¢ | missed | 168d ago |
| Knicks vs. 76ers | 48¢ | called | 169d ago |
| Knicks vs. 76ers | 50¢ | called | 170d ago |
| Knicks vs. 76ers | 50¢ | called | 170d ago |
| BNP Paribas Open: Jack Draper vs Daniil Medvedev | 39¢ | missed | 226d ago |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | 62¢ | called | 243d ago |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | 58¢ | called | 244d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.