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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 8. The prices it paid implied about 3.4 wins, so it did -18.1 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 8 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-18.1 pts
Called / graded
2/8
Expected from price
3.4
Flagged volume
$897.1k
Sample size8 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±16.7 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$192k8 graded bets in the order they resolved · 2 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Pistons vs. Cavaliers at 43¢) and the edge is -28.9 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 10% · n=1
20–40¢
0% vs 33% · n=1
40–60¢
33% vs 50% · n=6
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$3.30M
Last 30 days +$0 · $57.19M volume · 33,579 trades · since Feb 19, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 439 closed
−$3.30M
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
43%
439 closed
Wallet age · markets
247d
439 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 8 | 2 | 3.4 | -18.1 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Pelicans vs. Lakers | LOW BUY Pelicans @ 26¢ | $17.7k | excluded |
| Pistons vs. Cavaliers | LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 43¢ | $50.0k | called |
| Clippers vs. Warriors | LOW BUY Warriors @ 49¢ | $32.7k | missed |
| Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 216.5 | MED BUY Over @ 50¢ | $206.0k 5.2× usual |
excluded |
| Celtics vs. Bucks | LOW BUY Celtics @ 57¢ | $36.8k | called |
| Cavaliers vs. Nets | LOW BUY Nets @ 15¢ | $13.3k | excluded |
| Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | LOW BUY Nuggets @ 58¢ | $37.1k | missed |
| Nuggets vs. Thunder | MED BUY Nuggets @ 29¢ | $42.9k | excluded |
| Nets vs. Celtics | MED BUY Nets @ 10¢ | $37.1k | missed |
| Heat vs. 76ers | MED BUY Heat @ 45¢ | $38.4k | excluded |
| Celtics vs. Nuggets | MED BUY Celtics @ 43¢ | $69.0k | missed |
| Cavaliers vs. Bucks | MED BUY Cavaliers @ 58¢ | $134.4k 3.4× usual |
excluded |
| Timberwolves vs. Trail Blazers | MED BUY Trail Blazers @ 33¢ | $70.0k | missed |
| Thunder vs. Raptors | LOW BUY Thunder @ 50¢ | $57.1k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Pistons | LOW BUY Pistons @ 52¢ | $40.6k | missed |
| Raptors vs. Bulls | LOW BUY Bulls @ 34¢ | $14.0k | excluded |
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