Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$392
Return on staked
-49.0%
Bets
2/8 won
Edge vs price
-18.1 pts ±16.7
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Feb 23, 09:58 ESTMar 03, 17:58 EST
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pistons vs. Cavaliers | 43¢ | called | 234d ago |
| Clippers vs. Warriors | 49¢ | missed | 235d ago |
| Celtics vs. Bucks | 57¢ | called | 236d ago |
| Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | 58¢ | missed | 237d ago |
| Nets vs. Celtics | 10¢ | missed | 238d ago |
| Celtics vs. Nuggets | 43¢ | missed | 240d ago |
| Timberwolves vs. Trail Blazers | 33¢ | missed | 241d ago |
| Spurs vs. Pistons | 52¢ | missed | 243d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.