RealityTwister

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.7 wins, so it did -21.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Price-adjusted edge

-21.7 pts

Called / graded

1/3

Expected from price

1.7

Flagged volume

$1.09M

Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±28.6 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$141.3k

Last 30 days +$0 · $9.33M volume · 1,110 trades · since Jan 10, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$452.1k

Open P&L · 5 positions

−$310.9k

Closed-position win rate

57%

112 closed

Wallet age · markets

288d

115 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	3	1	1.7	-21.7 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner	HIGH BUY Carlos Alcaraz @ 47¢	$275.1k 4.0× usual	47%	195d ago	excluded
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougars	LOW BUY Illinois Fighting Illini @ 42¢	$52.1k	42%	212d ago	excluded
Magic vs. Hawks	LOW BUY Magic @ 43¢	$67.5k	43%	222d ago	excluded
Timberwolves vs. Lakers	LOW BUY Lakers @ 43¢	$17.9k	43%	227d ago	excluded
Celtics vs. Spurs	LOW BUY Celtics @ 41¢	$71.0k	41%	227d ago	excluded
Clippers vs. Warriors	MED BUY Clippers @ 50¢	$138.8k 2.0× usual	50%	235d ago	excluded
Celtics vs. Bucks	LOW BUY Bucks @ 44¢	$98.3k	44%	235d ago	excluded
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets	LOW BUY Nuggets @ 56¢	$36.1k	56%	237d ago	excluded
Cavaliers vs. Bucks	LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 61¢	$21.3k	61%	240d ago	missed
Warriors vs. Pelicans	MED BUY Pelicans @ 48¢	$180.6k 2.6× usual	48%	242d ago	called
Thunder vs. Raptors	LOW BUY Raptors @ 56¢	$14.4k	56%	242d ago	missed
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev	MED BUY Alcaraz @ 50¢	$120.0k	50%	267d ago	excluded

Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinnerexcluded

BUY Carlos Alcaraz @ 47¢$275.1k

HIGH RealityTwister · 195d ago

Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougarsexcluded

BUY Illinois Fighting Illini @ 42¢$52.1k

LOW RealityTwister · 212d ago

Magic vs. Hawksexcluded

BUY Magic @ 43¢$67.5k

LOW RealityTwister · 222d ago

Timberwolves vs. Lakersexcluded

BUY Lakers @ 43¢$17.9k

LOW RealityTwister · 227d ago

Celtics vs. Spursexcluded

BUY Celtics @ 41¢$71.0k

LOW RealityTwister · 227d ago

Clippers vs. Warriorsexcluded

BUY Clippers @ 50¢$138.8k

MED RealityTwister · 235d ago

Celtics vs. Bucksexcluded

BUY Bucks @ 44¢$98.3k

LOW RealityTwister · 235d ago

Timberwolves vs. Nuggetsexcluded

BUY Nuggets @ 56¢$36.1k

LOW RealityTwister · 237d ago

Cavaliers vs. Bucksmissed

BUY Cavaliers @ 61¢$21.3k

LOW RealityTwister · 240d ago

Warriors vs. Pelicanscalled

BUY Pelicans @ 48¢$180.6k

MED RealityTwister · 242d ago

Thunder vs. Raptorsmissed

BUY Raptors @ 56¢$14.4k

LOW RealityTwister · 242d ago

Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverevexcluded

BUY Alcaraz @ 50¢$120.0k

MED RealityTwister · 267d ago

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