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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 14 of 20. The prices it paid implied about 12.4 wins, so it did +8.2 pts better than the market expected. That's no clear edge yet (+8.2 pts over 20 bets). Without its single best bet: +5.8 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+8.2 pts
Called / graded
14/20
Expected from price
12.4
Flagged volume
$816.0k
Sample size20 graded
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±10.5 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$50k20 graded bets in the order they resolved · 14 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Warriors vs. Pelicans at 48¢) and the edge is +5.8 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 34% · n=1
40–60¢
62% vs 53% · n=8
60–80¢
82% vs 71% · n=11
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$1.24M
Last 30 days −$4 · $68.97M volume · 46,135 trades · since Dec 03, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$9.25M
Open P&L · 500 positions
−$6.77M
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
325d
7258 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 20 | 14 | 12.4 | +8.2 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverines | LOW BUY Michigan Wolverines @ 76¢ | $16.0k | called |
| Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes | MED BUY Illinois Fighting Illini @ 76¢ | $78.3k 3.6× usual |
excluded |
| Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverines | MED BUY Michigan Wolverines @ 75¢ | $29.8k | called |
| Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes | MED BUY Illinois Fighting Illini @ 73¢ | $34.2k | called |
 Wild vs. Panthers | MED BUY Wild @ 58¢ | $31.6k | called |
| Magic vs. Hawks | LOW BUY Hawks @ 59¢ | $23.0k | called |
| Magic vs. Hawks | LOW BUY Hawks @ 59¢ | $10.9k | called |
| Timberwolves vs. Lakers | LOW BUY Timberwolves @ 55¢ | $24.8k | missed |
 Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-03? | MED BUY Yes @ 67¢ | $77.2k 3.5× usual |
missed |
 Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-02? | LOW BUY Yes @ 71¢ | $13.6k | missed |
| Heat vs. 76ers | LOW BUY 76ers @ 56¢ | $20.6k | excluded |
| Rockets vs. Magic | LOW BUY Magic @ 44¢ | $10.0k | missed |
| Spurs vs. Raptors | LOW BUY Spurs @ 66¢ | $14.9k | excluded |
| Thunder vs. Pistons | MED BUY Pistons @ 78¢ | $33.0k | called |
| Warriors vs. Pelicans | LOW BUY Pelicans @ 47¢ | $13.9k | excluded |
| Warriors vs. Pelicans | LOW BUY Pelicans @ 48¢ | $10.9k | called |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-21? | MED BUY Yes @ 61¢ | $20.2k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Warriors | MED BUY Spurs @ 68¢ | $45.7k 2.1× usual |
called |
 Seahawks vs. Patriots | LOW BUY Seahawks @ 68¢ | $17.2k | called |
| Panthers vs. Lightning | LOW BUY Lightning @ 64¢ | $11.0k | called |
| 76ers vs. Clippers | LOW BUY Clippers @ 49¢ | $12.7k | excluded |
| Maple Leafs vs. Flames | MED BUY Maple Leafs @ 52¢ | $86.7k 4.0× usual |
called |
| Bulls vs. Heat | MED BUY Heat @ 63¢ | $30.1k | called |
 UFC 325: Fiziev vs. Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) | LOW BUY Ruffy @ 46¢ | $10.9k | excluded |
| Spread: Knicks (-7.5) | LOW BUY Trail Blazers @ 50¢ | $12.1k | excluded |
| Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | MED BUY Patriots @ 49¢ | $39.6k | missed |
| Trail Blazers vs. Celtics | MED BUY Celtics @ 76¢ | $56.0k 2.6× usual |
called |
| Patriots vs. Broncos | HIGH BUY Broncos @ 34¢ | $31.1k | missed |
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