Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
+$183
Return on staked
+9.1%
Bets
14/20 won
Edge vs price
+8.2 pts ±10.5
Consistency check. Older half of bets: +20.0 pts (8/10). Newer half: -3.7 pts (6/10). The edge has faded in recent bets.
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Jan 25, 11:53 ESTMar 29, 08:38 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverines | 76¢ | called | 209d ago |
| Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverines | 75¢ | called | 210d ago |
| Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes | 73¢ | called | 210d ago |
| Wild vs. Panthers | 58¢ | called | 212d ago |
| Magic vs. Hawks | 59¢ | called | 221d ago |
| Magic vs. Hawks | 59¢ | called | 222d ago |
| Timberwolves vs. Lakers | 55¢ | missed | 227d ago |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-03? | 67¢ | missed | 235d ago |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-02? | 71¢ | missed | 236d ago |
| Rockets vs. Magic | 44¢ | missed | 239d ago |
| Thunder vs. Pistons | 78¢ | called | 241d ago |
| Warriors vs. Pelicans | 48¢ | called | 242d ago |
| Spurs vs. Warriors | 68¢ | called | 254d ago |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | 68¢ | called | 257d ago |
| Panthers vs. Lightning | 64¢ | called | 260d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.