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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 5 of 6. The prices it paid implied about 5.1 wins, so it did -2.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 6 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-2.0 pts
Called / graded
5/6
Expected from price
5.1
Flagged volume
$503.5k
Sample size6 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±14.0 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$9k6 graded bets in the order they resolved · 5 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in February? at 70¢) and the edge is -8.3 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
60–80¢
100% vs 73% · n=2
80–100¢
75% vs 91% · n=4
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$448.7k
Last 30 days +$0 · $44.07M volume · 117,811 trades · since Feb 01, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$4.50M
Open P&L · 91 positions
−$78.4k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
265d
779 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto | 6 | 5 | 5.1 | -2.0 pts |
History
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x1461cc…