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Weekly report card

Week 2026-10

Mar 02, 00:00 EST – Mar 09, 00:59 EDT · markets that resolved this week

Price-adjusted edge
-18.3 pts
Called
70/170
Expected from price
101.2
Std. error
±3.3

In week 2026-10, 170 graded flags resolved. The flagged side won 70 times; entry prices implied 101.2. Whales did no better than the price (-18.3 pts). One week is a small sample.

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Other903454.1-22.4 pts
Sports682940.7-17.2 pts
Politics743.8+2.9 pts
Crypto532.5+10.0 pts

Every graded flag

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWalletWhenResult
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?MED BUY No @ 76¢ $202.7k
7.9× usual
76% SwissMiss LOSING264d agomissed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?MED BUY No @ 86¢ $176.5k
5.3× usual
86% Alexparker262d agomissed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?MED BUY No @ 77¢ $147.6k
5.8× usual
77% SwissMiss LOSING247d agomissed
Counter-Strike: SemperFi Esports vs Liquid (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1MED BUY Liquid @ 89¢ $108.0k
2.5× usual
89% 0x2a2c…9bc1235d agocalled
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-03?HIGH BUY Yes @ 66¢ $107.5k
4.8× usual
66% Jsram PROVEN234d agomissed
Celtics vs. BucksLOW BUY Bucks @ 45¢ $100.0k
5.0× usual
45% pikachusplace235d agomissed
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-03?MED BUY Yes @ 66¢ $99.6k
2.5× usual
66% auggl00p234d agomissed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 80¢ $98.9k
3.9× usual
80% SwissMiss LOSING247d agomissed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 83¢ $92.3k
4.3× usual
83% SlenderMan258d agomissed
Celtics vs. BucksLOW BUY Bucks @ 44¢ $84.6k44% 0x8dbf…53be235d agomissed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 86¢ $77.4k
3.0× usual
86% SwissMiss LOSING251d agomissed
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-03?MED BUY Yes @ 67¢ $77.2k
3.5× usual
67% c4c4 PROVEN234d agomissed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 84¢ $71.6k
2.1× usual
84% Alexparker262d agomissed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW BUY Yes @ 79¢ $68.3k
4.6× usual
79% flydartball238d agocalled
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?MED SELL No @ 83¢ $65.9k17% 0x889e…09e0255d agocalled
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW BUY Yes @ 93¢ $64.1k
3.5× usual
93% big.bitch237d agocalled
Counter-Strike: SemperFi Esports vs Liquid (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1LOW BUY Liquid @ 89¢ $61.4k
2.1× usual
89% acorp235d agocalled
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?MED SELL Yes @ 95.6¢ $59.6k4% balmerre237d agomissed
Golden Knights vs. SabresLOW BUY Sabres @ 57¢ $55.5k57% 0x2a2c…9bc1234d agocalled
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 77¢ $55.0k77% yingyingying777269d agomissed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?MED SELL Yes @ 95.1¢ $51.0k5% VinceShelby237d agomissed
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-03?LOW BUY Yes @ 66¢ $50.2k66% mudman88234d agomissed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW BUY Yes @ 96.6¢ $50.0k97% middlewesterner666237d agocalled
Pistons vs. CavaliersLOW BUY Cavaliers @ 43¢ $50.0k43% hotdogcat234d agocalled
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-03?LOW BUY Yes @ 66¢ $46.2k66% 0xb0cb…85ba234d agomissed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 70¢ $43.8k
2.0× usual
70% SlenderMan265d agomissed
Rockets vs. WizardsLOW BUY Rockets @ 90¢ $42.5k90% 0x7671…7244235d agocalled
Clippers vs. WarriorsLOW BUY Warriors @ 47¢ $42.3k47% justwins236d agomissed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 83¢ $42.0k83% informedtrader240d agomissed
Nuggets vs. JazzLOW BUY Nuggets @ 84¢ $40.0k84% 4217236d agocalled
Celtics vs. BucksLOW BUY Celtics @ 57¢ $39.9k57% LebronJames6769235d agocalled
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 78¢ $39.0k78% DonaldinhoTrumpito246d agomissed
Rockets vs. WizardsLOW BUY Rockets @ 90¢ $37.9k90% elkmonkey235d agocalled
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-03?LOW BUY No @ 36¢ $37.4k36% jtwyslljy235d agocalled
Rockets vs. WizardsLOW BUY Rockets @ 90¢ $36.9k90% 0x6e82…752c235d agocalled
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?MED SELL No @ 82¢ $36.9k18% fourfive239d agocalled
Celtics vs. BucksLOW BUY Celtics @ 57¢ $36.8k57% hotdogcat235d agocalled
Clippers vs. WarriorsLOW BUY Warriors @ 48¢ $36.0k48% 212121212121212121212235d agomissed
Rockets vs. WizardsLOW BUY Rockets @ 90¢ $35.0k90% elkmonkey236d agocalled
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?MED BUY Yes @ 79¢ $34.6k79% starbuck02237d agocalled
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 85¢ $34.0k85% SwissMiss LOSING251d agomissed
Celtics vs. BucksLOW BUY Bucks @ 40¢ $33.9k40% PromVx235d agomissed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?MED BUY Yes @ 74¢ $33.4k74% TheReturnOfDarthMaul237d agocalled
Clippers vs. WarriorsLOW BUY Warriors @ 49¢ $32.7k49% hotdogcat235d agomissed
Clippers vs. WarriorsLOW BUY Warriors @ 47¢ $32.3k47% DrPufferfish235d agomissed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 58¢ $32.2k58% 0xce66…cc64282d agomissed
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-03?LOW BUY Yes @ 66¢ $32.0k
2.4× usual
66% Carrylicious234d agomissed
Celtics vs. BucksLOW BUY Bucks @ 44¢ $31.5k44% Sensei2235d agomissed
Clippers vs. WarriorsLOW BUY Clippers @ 51¢ $30.6k51% huhaoli235d agocalled
Celtics vs. BucksLOW BUY Bucks @ 43¢ $30.4k43% joosangyoo235d agomissed
Pelicans vs. LakersLOW BUY Lakers @ 77¢ $30.0k77% 4217235d agocalled
Celtics vs. BucksLOW BUY Celtics @ 57¢ $29.7k57% acorp235d agocalled
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?MED BUY Yes @ 74¢ $25.9k74% inrock30237d agocalled
Nuggets vs. JazzLOW BUY Nuggets @ 85¢ $25.5k85% spx11235d agocalled
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?MED BUY No @ 59¢ $25.4k59% Llalalala238d agomissed
Pistons vs. CavaliersLOW BUY Pistons @ 58¢ $25.4k58% 0xcae4…e479235d agomissed
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-02?LOW BUY Yes @ 72¢ $25.0k72% Lorans21236d agomissed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 77¢ $25.0k
2.0× usual
23% 0x5b30…c01a247d agocalled
Clippers vs. WarriorsLOW BUY Warriors @ 48¢ $24.0k48% elkmonkey235d agomissed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW SELL Yes @ 96.7¢ $23.8k3% memeking237d agomissed
Clippers vs. WarriorsLOW BUY Warriors @ 50¢ $23.8k50% elkmonkey235d agomissed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 79¢ $23.6k79% betwick292d agomissed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 84¢ $23.3k84% 0x6989…b412261d agomissed
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-02?LOW BUY No @ 28¢ $23.2k28% kimi1986235d agocalled
Nuggets vs. JazzLOW BUY Jazz @ 16¢ $22.7k16% statwC00KS235d agomissed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?MED BUY No @ 81¢ $22.7k81% AnonAG NEW243d agomissed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 81¢ $22.6k81% 0x0573…5f76241d agomissed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 71¢ $22.1k29% tsybka288d agocalled
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 84¢ $22.0k84% 0x6989…b412259d agomissed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 77¢ $21.6k23% surf243d agocalled
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?MED SELL Yes @ 69¢ $20.4k31% 0xd9cb…92b1 NEW237d agomissed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW BUY Yes @ 14¢ $20.1k14% Magamyman249d agocalled
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW BUY Yes @ 76¢ $20.0k76% 0xddf4…2680237d agocalled
Real Madrid CF vs. Getafe CF: O/U 2.5LOW BUY Over @ 49¢ $20.0k49% coldsoup22236d agomissed
Clippers vs. WarriorsLOW BUY Clippers @ 52¢ $20.0k52% shan776235d agocalled
Rockets vs. WizardsLOW BUY Rockets @ 89¢ $20.0k89% winner877235d agocalled
Clippers vs. WarriorsLOW BUY Warriors @ 48¢ $19.8k48% crashbandzNloot235d agomissed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW BUY Yes @ 45¢ $19.6k45% 0xa5ad…be8c282d agocalled
Clippers vs. WarriorsLOW BUY Warriors @ 48¢ $19.2k48% yaknow99879235d agomissed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 78¢ $18.9k78% Annieelisa238d agomissed
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6AM ETLOW BUY Up @ 50¢ $18.2k50% lorenaevenieto234d agomissed
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-02?LOW BUY Yes @ 73¢ $18.1k73% BlasTesla235d agomissed
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6AM ETLOW BUY Down @ 50¢ $18.0k50% delph234d agocalled
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 78¢ $17.9k78% SwissMiss LOSING244d agomissed
Celtics vs. BucksLOW BUY Bucks @ 44¢ $17.5k44% nz7235d agomissed
Nuggets vs. JazzLOW BUY Nuggets @ 85¢ $17.4k85% Mongol3236d agocalled
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6AM ETLOW BUY Down @ 50¢ $17.3k50% rfergert234d agocalled
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6AM ETLOW BUY Up @ 50¢ $16.8k50% 0xba0d…c6d7234d agomissed
Real Madrid CF vs. Getafe CF: O/U 2.5LOW BUY Under @ 53¢ $16.8k53% swisstony PROVEN235d agocalled
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW SELL Yes @ 69¢ $16.6k31% 65154861237d agomissed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW SELL Yes @ 27¢ $16.0k73% 0x5fbd…fb37281d agomissed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 80¢ $16.0k80% AngryRhino243d agomissed
Nuggets vs. JazzLOW BUY Nuggets @ 84¢ $15.8k84% poomypants235d agocalled
Celtics vs. BucksLOW BUY Bucks @ 44¢ $15.8k44% krabstart235d agomissed
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6AM ETLOW BUY Down @ 50¢ $15.7k50% amiecormierhz234d agocalled
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 78¢ $15.6k78% Alexparker244d agomissed
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?LOW BUY Yes @ 71¢ $15.6k71% goodboys1239d agocalled
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?LOW BUY No @ 31¢ $15.5k31% wan123240d agomissed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW BUY Yes @ 96.1¢ $15.4k96% afdafdafdafdafd237d agocalled
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 76¢ $15.3k76% twe2nty245d agomissed

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Yesterday's biggest flags and how they graded. Misses included.