kimi1986

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.8 wins, so it did +11.5 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Price-adjusted edge

+11.5 pts

Called / graded

1/2

Expected from price

0.8

Flagged volume

$388.4k

Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±33.6 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$210.9k

Last 30 days +$0 · $9.06M volume · 5,927 trades · since Feb 20, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$1.62M

Open P&L · 227 positions

−$1.84M

Closed-position win rate

86%

232 closed

Wallet age · markets

246d

456 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	2	1	0.8	+11.5 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-06?	LOW BUY Yes @ 49¢	$22.6k	49%	47d ago	missed
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants	LOW BUY San Francisco Giants @ 48¢	$14.6k	48%	57d ago	excluded
Will AC Milan win on 2026-08-23?	LOW BUY Yes @ 44¢	$15.2k	44%	61d ago	excluded
Argentina vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5	LOW BUY Under @ 73¢	$14.8k	73%	108d ago	excluded
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-02?	LOW BUY No @ 28¢	$23.2k	28%	235d ago	called
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets	LOW SELL Timberwolves @ 99.9¢	$50.4k 2.2× usual	0%	236d ago	excluded
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets	LOW BUY Timberwolves @ 43¢	$17.5k	43%	236d ago	excluded
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-01?	LOW BUY No @ 35¢	$34.6k	35%	236d ago	excluded
Atalanta BC vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 2.5	LOW SELL Over @ 99.9¢	$144.9k 6.3× usual	0%	240d ago	excluded
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-21?	LOW BUY No @ 48¢	$50.8k 2.2× usual	48%	244d ago	excluded

Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-06?missed

BUY Yes @ 49¢$22.6k

LOW kimi1986 · 47d ago

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giantsexcluded

BUY San Francisco Giants @ 48¢$14.6k

LOW kimi1986 · 57d ago

Will AC Milan win on 2026-08-23?excluded

BUY Yes @ 44¢$15.2k

LOW kimi1986 · 61d ago

Argentina vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5excluded

BUY Under @ 73¢$14.8k

LOW kimi1986 · 108d ago

Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-02?called

BUY No @ 28¢$23.2k

LOW kimi1986 · 235d ago

Timberwolves vs. Nuggetsexcluded

SELL Timberwolves @ 99.9¢$50.4k

LOW kimi1986 · 236d ago

Timberwolves vs. Nuggetsexcluded

BUY Timberwolves @ 43¢$17.5k

LOW kimi1986 · 236d ago

Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-01?excluded

BUY No @ 35¢$34.6k

LOW kimi1986 · 236d ago

Atalanta BC vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 2.5excluded

SELL Over @ 99.9¢$144.9k

LOW kimi1986 · 240d ago

Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-21?excluded

BUY No @ 48¢$50.8k

LOW kimi1986 · 244d ago

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