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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.7 wins, so it did -66.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-66.0 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.7
Flagged volume
$730.2k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±47.4 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$488.6k
Last 30 days +$0 · $18.18M volume · 7,350 trades · since Sep 13, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 410 closed
−$118.3k
Open P&L · 27 positions
−$368.1k
Closed-position win rate
79%
410 closed
Wallet age · markets
406d
436 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 0 | 0.7 | -66.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) | LOW BUY Khamzat Chimaev @ 80¢ | $18.1k | excluded |
 Rockets vs. Lakers | LOW BUY Lakers @ 60¢ | $49.2k | excluded |
| Magic vs. Pistons | LOW SELL Pistons @ 99.9¢ | $15.8k | excluded |
| Trail Blazers vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 86¢ | $79.0k | excluded |
| Magic vs. Pistons | LOW BUY Pistons @ 79¢ | $19.0k | excluded |
| Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines | LOW SELL Michigan Wolverines @ 99.9¢ | $15.6k | excluded |
| Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines | LOW BUY Michigan Wolverines @ 50¢ | $19.3k | excluded |
 Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans | LOW SELL Michigan State Spartans @ 99.9¢ | $80.7k | excluded |
 Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-18? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $96.4k | excluded |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-18? | LOW BUY Yes @ 78¢ | $74.7k | excluded |
 Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-03? | LOW BUY Yes @ 66¢ | $50.2k | missed |
| Lakers vs. Warriors | LOW SELL Lakers @ 99.9¢ | $22.5k | excluded |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | LOW SELL Pistons @ 99.9¢ | $189.8k 3.9× usual |
excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x769056…