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What this means. A wallet put $15.5k on No, at a price that gave it a 31% chance. It lost. This wallet has no clear edge yet (-1.8 pts over 37 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$15.5k
BUY No @ 31¢ · 50,000 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)Politics
What happened
Wallet wan123 took No (buy) for $15.5k at an average 31¢. At that price the market implied a 31% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $15.5k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 31¢ means
31%chance the market gave
+223American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 31¢
- Implied odds
- 31.0%
- Size
- $15.5k
- Placed
- Feb 25, 12:24 EST
- Market close
- Mar 02, 19:00 EST
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- wan123
- Tx
- 0x042d0e81…
This wallet's graded record
12/37-1.8 pts
expected 12.7 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -31 ptsNo price · entry 31¢ · resolved Yes
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $16.2k | excluded |
| Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $19.7k | excluded |
| Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $99.7k 3.9× usual |
excluded |
| Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $79.9k | excluded |
| Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.7¢ | $12.6k | excluded |
| Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.7¢ | $18.9k | excluded |