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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 2.5 wins, so it did -13.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-13.0 pts
Called / graded
2/4
Expected from price
2.5
Flagged volume
$222.2k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±23.4 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$7,852
Last 30 days +$0 · $5.38M volume · 3,907 trades · since Jan 15, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$7,852
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
56%
244 closed
Wallet age · markets
282d
220 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 4 | 2 | 2.5 | -13.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Timberwolves vs. Lakers | LOW BUY Timberwolves @ 55¢ | $11.0k | missed |
| Clippers vs. Warriors | LOW BUY Warriors @ 48¢ | $19.2k | missed |
| Cavaliers vs. Nets | LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 84¢ | $30.2k | excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Thunder @ 76¢ | $10.7k | called |
| Rockets vs. Magic | LOW SELL Rockets @ 57¢ | $22.8k | missed |
| Rockets vs. Magic | LOW BUY Rockets @ 57¢ | $22.8k | called |
| Cavaliers vs. Bucks | LOW BUY Bucks @ 41¢ | $16.9k | excluded |
| Thunder vs. Pistons | LOW BUY Pistons @ 73¢ | $14.1k | called |
| Thunder vs. Raptors | LOW BUY Thunder @ 45¢ | $14.9k | excluded |
| Timberwolves vs. Trail Blazers | LOW SELL Timberwolves @ 69¢ | $13.8k | missed |
| Timberwolves vs. Trail Blazers | LOW BUY Timberwolves @ 70¢ | $14.0k | called |
| Warriors vs. Pelicans | LOW SELL Warriors @ 53¢ | $15.9k | called |
| Warriors vs. Pelicans | LOW BUY Warriors @ 53¢ | $15.9k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x8ff300…