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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 8. The prices it paid implied about 3.4 wins, so it did -30.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 8 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-30.5 pts
Called / graded
1/8
Expected from price
3.4
Flagged volume
$205.8k
Sample size8 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±13.9 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$180k8 graded bets in the order they resolved · 1 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by A at 83¢) and the edge is -37.3 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 12% · n=3
20–40¢
0% vs 28% · n=1
40–60¢
0% vs 41% · n=1
60–80¢
0% vs 73% · n=1
80–100¢
50% vs 83% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$43.0k
Last 30 days −$3,466 · $3.25M volume · 4,735 trades · since Jan 09, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$274.3k
Open P&L · 34 positions
−$314.6k
Closed-position win rate
83%
115 closed
Wallet age · markets
289d
159 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 6 | 1 | 1.9 | -14.7 pts |
| Sports | 2 | 0 | 1.6 | -78.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will England win on 2026-06-23? | LOW BUY Yes @ 83¢ | $87.6k 6.0× usual |
missed |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 85¢ | $19.8k | missed |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | LOW SELL No @ 72¢ | $10.8k | missed |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | LOW SELL No @ 94¢ | $14.5k | missed |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | LOW SELL No @ 59¢ | $20.9k | missed |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 85¢ | $11.1k | missed |
 Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | LOW BUY No @ 83¢ | $12.2k | called |
 Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-02? | LOW BUY Yes @ 73¢ | $18.1k | missed |
 US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 13¢ | $10.9k | excluded |
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