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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.5 wins, so it did -50.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-50.0 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.5
Flagged volume
$16.8k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±50.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$526
Last 30 days +$0 · $66.3k volume · 14 trades · since Mar 01, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$16.3k
Open P&L · 1 positions
−$16.8k
Closed-position win rate
100%
5 closed
Wallet age · markets
237d
6 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | -50.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6AM ET | LOW BUY Up @ 50¢ | $16.8k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xba0db1…