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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.6 wins, so it did -57.8 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-57.8 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.6
Flagged volume
$215.5k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±49.4 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$40.0k
Last 30 days +$0 · $2.65M volume · 553 trades · since Mar 01, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$153.2k
Open P&L · 61 positions
−$175.4k
Closed-position win rate
40%
112 closed
Wallet age · markets
237d
245 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 0 | 0.6 | -57.8 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Spurs vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Spurs @ 88¢ | $11.7k | excluded |
| Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | LOW BUY Nuggets @ 73¢ | $17.9k | excluded |
| Magic vs. Pistons | LOW SELL Magic @ 99.9¢ | $19.3k | excluded |
| Magic vs. Pistons | LOW BUY Magic @ 61¢ | $11.7k | excluded |
| Hawks vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Knicks @ 73¢ | $19.7k | excluded |
| Kings vs. Clippers | LOW SELL Kings @ 99.9¢ | $26.4k 2.0× usual |
excluded |
| Kings vs. Clippers | LOW BUY Kings @ 40¢ | $10.6k | excluded |
| Pistons vs. Cavaliers | LOW BUY Pistons @ 58¢ | $25.4k | missed |
| Clippers vs. Warriors | LOW BUY Warriors @ 64¢ | $13.1k | excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Jazz | LOW SELL Nuggets @ 99.9¢ | $13.1k | excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Jazz | LOW BUY Nuggets @ 85¢ | $11.2k | excluded |
| Rockets vs. Wizards | LOW SELL Rockets @ 99.5¢ | $11.2k | excluded |
| Cavaliers vs. Nets | LOW SELL Cavaliers @ 99.9¢ | $13.1k | excluded |
| Cavaliers vs. Nets | LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 84¢ | $11.0k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xcae4d5…