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+$8,262No · avg 47¢ → 50¢ · $104.9k · 0 proven with, 1 against−$200Over · avg 53¢ → 52¢ · $25.6k
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 9. The prices it paid implied about 4.4 wins, so it did -15.8 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 9 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Open bets: who else is there
Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.
No · Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-10-24?
Same side: 0 proven · 0 losing Other side: 1 proven · 0 losing
Price-adjusted edge
-15.8 pts
Called / graded
3/9
Expected from price
4.4
Flagged volume
$747.3k
Sample size9 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±16.5 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$187k9 graded bets in the order they resolved · 3 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 at 52¢) and the edge is -23.7 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 32% · n=1
40–60¢
29% vs 49% · n=7
60–80¢
100% vs 64% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$1.01M
Last 30 days +$251.0k · $20.72M volume · 14,346 trades · since Nov 06, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 454 closed
−$710.1k
Open P&L · 11 positions
−$288.4k
Closed-position win rate
52%
454 closed
Wallet age · markets
352d
462 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 9 | 3 | 4.4 | -15.8 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Coventry City FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners | LOW BUY Over @ 53¢ | $21.8k | pending |
 Rockets vs. Spurs: O/U 224.5 | LOW BUY Under @ 51¢ | $16.6k | excluded |
| Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-10-24? | LOW BUY No @ 47¢ | $73.0k | pending |
| Cavaliers vs. 76ers: O/U 236.5 | MED BUY Over @ 52¢ | $37.6k | excluded |
| Spread: Raptors (-10.5) | LOW BUY Bulls @ 51¢ | $20.4k | missed |
| Suns vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 231.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 51¢ | $19.6k | missed |
 Cardinals vs. Giants | LOW BUY Giants @ 45¢ | $90.0k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| Panthers vs. Falcons | LOW BUY Falcons @ 44¢ | $69.9k | missed |
| Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 52¢ | $98.7k 2.6× usual |
called |
 US Open WTA: Madison Keys vs Qinwen Zheng | LOW BUY Madison Keys @ 60¢ | $26.3k | excluded |
| Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-08-24? | MED BUY No @ 49¢ | $162.0k 4.3× usual |
missed |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 32¢ | $11.6k | missed |
| Spread: Thunder (-6.5) | LOW BUY Thunder @ 52¢ | $44.0k | called |
| Clippers vs. Warriors | LOW BUY Warriors @ 47¢ | $42.3k | missed |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-01? | LOW BUY Yes @ 64¢ | $13.5k | called |
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