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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.4 wins, so it did -71.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-71.5 pts
Called / graded
0/2
Expected from price
1.4
Flagged volume
$56.2k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±31.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$13.3k
Last 30 days +$0 · $7.53M volume · 11,969 trades · since Oct 23, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 481 closed
+$448.0k
Open P&L · 196 positions
−$445.6k
Closed-position win rate
87%
481 closed
Wallet age · markets
366d
669 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 2 | 0 | 1.4 | -71.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | LOW BUY Yes @ 77¢ | $13.2k | missed |
 Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-03? | LOW BUY Yes @ 66¢ | $32.0k 2.4× usual |
missed |
 US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 82¢ | $10.9k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xb3a1aa…