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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 2.4 wins, so it did +15.9 pts better than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+15.9 pts
Called / graded
3/4
Expected from price
2.4
Flagged volume
$112.4k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±23.9 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$22.2k
Last 30 days +$0 · $4.59M volume · 669 trades · since Nov 16, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$28.8k
Open P&L · 3 positions
−$6,622
Closed-position win rate
48%
248 closed
Wallet age · markets
343d
249 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 4 | 3 | 2.4 | +15.9 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-03-15? | LOW BUY No @ 57¢ | $13.9k | excluded |
 Timberwolves vs. Lakers | LOW BUY Timberwolves @ 55¢ | $30.0k | missed |
| Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | LOW BUY Timberwolves @ 42¢ | $11.2k | called |
| Nuggets vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Thunder @ 71¢ | $30.0k | called |
 Counter-Strike: FURIA vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage | LOW BUY FURIA @ 69¢ | $27.4k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xc2c1a8…