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+$0Alex Molcan · avg 40¢ → 40¢ · $18
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.6 wins, so it did -20.3 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-20.3 pts
Called / graded
1/3
Expected from price
1.6
Flagged volume
$153.9k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±28.6 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$646.2k
Last 30 days −$15.3k · $9.74M volume · 3,687 trades · since Feb 19, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$1.47M
Open P&L · 5 positions
−$54
Closed-position win rate
57%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
247d
574 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 3 | 1 | 1.6 | -20.3 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) | LOW BUY Khamzat Chimaev @ 82¢ | $50.0k 3.0× usual |
excluded |
| UFC Fight Night: Alexander Hernandez vs. Rafa Garcia (Lightweight, Prelims) | LOW BUY Rafa Garcia @ 49¢ | $11.6k | excluded |
 Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner | LOW BUY Carlos Alcaraz @ 48¢ | $16.7k | excluded |
 Pistons vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Pistons @ 55¢ | $18.0k | excluded |
| Clippers vs. Warriors | LOW BUY Warriors @ 48¢ | $15.0k | missed |
| Spread: Hornets (-12.5) | LOW BUY Hornets @ 52¢ | $15.0k | called |
| Cavaliers vs. Bucks | MED BUY Cavaliers @ 61¢ | $27.5k | missed |
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