PancraceRoyer

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.7 wins, so it did +10.8 pts better than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?+$572No · avg 84¢ → 95.5¢ · $4,772 Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?+$2,294Yes · avg 29¢ → 80¢ · $3,584 Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?−$735Yes · avg 63¢ → 47¢ · $2,115 Will the Democratic Party win the VA-03 House seat?+$100Yes · avg 91¢ → 96¢ · $1,920 US strike on Cuba by December 31?+$750No · avg 53¢ → 90.5¢ · $1,810 Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?+$290No · avg 63¢ → 78¢ · $1,550 Will the Democratic Party win the MN-05 House seat?+$68Yes · avg 91.1¢ → 95.7¢ · $1,435 Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?−$645Yes · avg 54¢ → 32¢ · $975

Price-adjusted edge

+10.8 pts

Called / graded

2/3

Expected from price

1.7

Flagged volume

$50.0k

Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±22.7 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$87.0k

Last 30 days +$734 · $1.91M volume · 4,317 trades · since Jan 28, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L · recent 500 closed

+$189.1k

Open P&L · 52 positions

−$3,111

Closed-position win rate

79%

500 closed

Wallet age · markets

269d

639 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	3	2	1.7	+10.8 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	LOW SELL No @ 84¢	$12.9k	16%	142d ago	missed
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 90¢	$10.3k	90%	229d ago	called
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 62¢	$26.9k 2.1× usual	62%	245d ago	called

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?missed

SELL No @ 84¢$12.9k

LOW PancraceRoyer · 142d ago

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?called

BUY No @ 90¢$10.3k

LOW PancraceRoyer · 229d ago

US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?called

BUY Yes @ 62¢$26.9k

LOW PancraceRoyer · 245d ago

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