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Weekly report card

Week 2026-38

Sep 14, 00:00 EDT – Sep 20, 23:59 EDT · markets that resolved this week

Price-adjusted edge
+2.0 pts
Called
258/427
Expected from price
249.5
Std. error
±2.2

In week 2026-38, 427 graded flags resolved. The flagged side won 258 times; entry prices implied 249.5. Whales beat the price by +2.0 pts. One week is a small sample.

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Economy271163155.5+2.8 pts
Sports1378380.5+1.8 pts
Politics1298.4+4.8 pts
Other735.1-30.3 pts

Every graded flag

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWalletWhenResult
Lions vs. BillsHIGH BUY Bills @ 70¢ $3.13M70% halvanicus36d agocalled
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-09-15?HIGH BUY Yes @ 60¢ $1.34M60% 0x5169…184238d agomissed
Lions vs. BillsHIGH BUY Bills @ 70¢ $834.4k
6.7× usual
70% kindar36d agocalled
Commanders vs. CowboysHIGH BUY Cowboys @ 66¢ $356.5k66% Tiger20033d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?HIGH BUY Yes @ 88¢ $326.8k88% yuahldj38d agocalled
Lions vs. BillsHIGH BUY Bills @ 72¢ $267.8k
18.5× usual
72% Herdonia36d agocalled
Vikings vs. BearsMED BUY Bears @ 66¢ $264.0k
2.1× usual
66% Sassy-Bucket33d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?HIGH BUY Yes @ 76¢ $213.7k
5.7× usual
76% Erasmus. PROVEN42d agocalled
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-09-15?MED BUY Yes @ 57¢ $200.0k57% kindar38d agomissed
Lions vs. BillsMED BUY Bills @ 70¢ $196.4k70% halvanicus36d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 88¢ $176.0k
4.4× usual
88% 0x64c8…73ce39d agocalled
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-09-17?MED BUY Yes @ 64¢ $163.9k64% kindar36d agocalled
Eagles vs. TitansMED BUY Eagles @ 75¢ $147.2k
6.5× usual
75% wigglew33d agocalled
Colts vs. ChiefsMED BUY Chiefs @ 72¢ $143.0k
2.7× usual
72% Berniepaidoff33d agocalled
Vikings vs. BearsHIGH BUY Vikings @ 34¢ $130.5k
2.2× usual
34% Kch-Temp PROVEN33d agocalled
Vikings vs. BearsHIGH BUY Bears @ 66¢ $130.4k
5.9× usual
66% Jsram PROVEN33d agomissed
Vikings vs. BearsMED BUY Bears @ 67¢ $129.9k67% optimistic-dragon34d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 81¢ $125.9k
3.4× usual
81% Erasmus. PROVEN42d agocalled
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 95.2¢ $123.9k
4.6× usual
95% TheReturnOfDarthMaul109d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 85¢ $121.9k
2.5× usual
85% ClickKlackClick39d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 87¢ $115.1k
2.6× usual
87% Dreamlawn39d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 47¢ $113.7k
3.0× usual
47% 0xbe18…3be444d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 90¢ $113.3k
2.9× usual
90% HH16838d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 86¢ $112.2k
2.5× usual
86% Dreamlawn39d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 85¢ $102.0k
2.7× usual
85% Erasmus. PROVEN39d agocalled
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-09-15?MED BUY Yes @ 82¢ $100.6k82% surfandturf LOSING39d agocalled
Will Elche CF win on 2026-09-15?LOW BUY No @ 94.8¢ $100.0k95% kindar38d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 90¢ $99.5k
3.4× usual
90% b2d038d agocalled
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5LOW BUY Over @ 52¢ $98.7k
2.6× usual
52% justwins35d agocalled
Eagles vs. TitansHIGH BUY Titans @ 26¢ $98.5k26% Kch-Temp PROVEN33d agomissed
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5MED BUY Over @ 55¢ $98.0k
4.6× usual
55% omnibus-076daa PROVEN35d agocalled
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 96.2¢ $96.2k
3.6× usual
96% TheReturnOfDarthMaul107d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 22¢ $95.0k
2.5× usual
22% 0xbe18…3be440d agomissed
Raiders vs. ChargersLOW BUY Chargers @ 73¢ $95.0k
2.4× usual
73% Kosherlocks34d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?HIGH BUY No @ 49¢ $92.6k49% thelastdance777 NEW43d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?HIGH BUY Yes @ 21¢ $90.2k21% jzhong5 NEW42d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?HIGH BUY Yes @ 52¢ $89.1k
2.2× usual
52% Larpital NEW56d agomissed
Panthers vs. FalconsLOW BUY Falcons @ 44¢ $88.0k44% Diabolical-Prize33d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 81¢ $85.0k
5.4× usual
81% ProfessionalPunter42d agocalled
Miami Marlins vs. Arizona DiamondbacksMED BUY Arizona Diamondbacks @ 55¢ $79.3k55% pleaseplease12339d agocalled
Panthers vs. FalconsMED BUY Falcons @ 43¢ $78.5k43% raybanman34d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 85¢ $78.5k
2.7× usual
85% Ronaldo210039d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 51¢ $77.8k51% patrick77756d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 65¢ $75.8k
2.0× usual
65% Erasmus. PROVEN43d agocalled
Panthers vs. FalconsLOW BUY Falcons @ 44¢ $69.9k44% justwins33d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 87¢ $69.7k87% Erasmus. PROVEN38d agocalled
New York Yankees vs. Arizona DiamondbacksLOW BUY New York Yankees @ 59¢ $67.1k59% 0x3dfb…abaf34d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 87¢ $65.7k87% WinterIsLeaving39d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 46¢ $65.0k46% 0xbe18…3be444d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?HIGH BUY Yes @ 15¢ $64.1k
4.0× usual
15% harshagarwal343 NEW39d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 37¢ $62.9k
2.3× usual
37% ArmageddonRewardsBilly PROVEN74d agocalled
Minnesota Twins vs. Los Angeles AngelsMED BUY Los Angeles Angels @ 51¢ $62.9k51% pleaseplease12336d agocalled
Eagles vs. TitansLOW BUY Eagles @ 75¢ $61.2k
3.5× usual
75% ic4cream33d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 46¢ $56.2k46% thelastdance777 NEW44d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 69¢ $55.1k
2.1× usual
69% Melody62657d agomissed
Commanders vs. CowboysMED BUY Commanders @ 34¢ $54.9k34% 0x2c33…056333d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 79¢ $54.1k
3.1× usual
79% purplegatto PROVEN42d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 90¢ $54.0k90% Macks2238d agocalled
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-09-15?LOW BUY Yes @ 81¢ $53.9k
2.4× usual
81% mooseborzoi LOSING38d agocalled
Will AC Milan win on 2026-09-16?MED BUY Yes @ 45¢ $53.0k
2.5× usual
45% omnibus-076daa PROVEN37d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 88¢ $52.8k88% funnyday39d agocalled
New York Yankees vs. Arizona DiamondbacksLOW BUY New York Yankees @ 59¢ $52.5k
2.4× usual
59% Pwaddler34d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 47¢ $52.2k
2.4× usual
47% scottilicious PROVEN44d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 79¢ $51.4k
2.7× usual
79% barndoor3 NEW40d agocalled
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?LOW BUY No @ 83¢ $51.3k
2.1× usual
83% dromedaryy35d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 88¢ $50.4k
2.6× usual
88% 0x6302…791738d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 80¢ $50.4k
2.1× usual
80% ImJustKen42d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?HIGH BUY Yes @ 57¢ $50.4k57% Googly NEW56d agomissed
Spread: Bills (-5.5)LOW BUY Bills @ 50¢ $50.0k
2.1× usual
50% Feromont36d agocalled
Vikings vs. BearsLOW BUY Bears @ 66¢ $50.0k66% Berniepaidoff33d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 72¢ $49.9k
2.6× usual
72% Vilgefortz42d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 79¢ $49.6k79% lomneivan42d agocalled
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-20?LOW BUY Yes @ 75¢ $48.9k75% NemanjaWC34d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 86¢ $48.5k86% xrr6739d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 47¢ $47.9k47% JohnnyWalker318 NEW45d agomissed
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC PlayoffsMED BUY Karmine Corp @ 73¢ $47.5k
2.1× usual
73% StasPanda34d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 50¢ $47.5k50% Erasmus. PROVEN46d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 88¢ $47.5k88% Ronaldo210039d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 32¢ $47.0k32% coali1061d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 88¢ $46.6k
3.0× usual
88% allenzzz38d agocalled
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-09-15?LOW BUY Yes @ 82¢ $45.8k
2.0× usual
82% mooseborzoi LOSING39d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 81¢ $45.0k81% Ronaldo210042d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 49¢ $44.8k49% Dreamlawn46d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 80¢ $44.4k80% Ronaldo210040d agocalled
Fresno State vs. San Jose StateLOW BUY San Jose State @ 35¢ $44.4k35% gmpm234d agomissed
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 96.1¢ $42.9k96% TheReturnOfDarthMaul113d agocalled
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?MED BUY No @ 92.9¢ $42.5k
2.7× usual
93% classified33d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 87¢ $42.1k87% Erasmus. PROVEN39d agocalled
Bengals vs. TexansMED BUY Bengals @ 42¢ $42.0k42% Diabolical-Prize33d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 57¢ $41.7k57% monkeyking42 NEW74d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 48¢ $40.7k48% magnusmajor NEW54d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?HIGH BUY Yes @ 19¢ $40.4k19% Larpital NEW42d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 80¢ $40.0k80% 0x123c…ed1d40d agocalled
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?MED BUY Yes @ 95¢ $39.5k95% ScottyNooo PROVEN46d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 36¢ $39.1k36% GDJHAV NEW60d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 78¢ $39.0k
2.4× usual
78% 0xcf19…640240d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 57¢ $39.0k57% ArmageddonRewardsBilly PROVEN53d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 80¢ $38.5k
2.1× usual
80% Aeglos42d agocalled
Seahawks vs. CardinalsLOW BUY Seahawks @ 65¢ $38.1k65% 0x3dfb…abaf34d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 81¢ $37.7k
2.1× usual
81% Aeglos42d agocalled

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Yesterday's biggest flags and how they graded. Misses included.