← Wallets
−$91.6kYes · avg 41¢ → 6.5¢ · $17.5k−$7,547No · avg 21¢ → 6.5¢ · $3,306 · 0 proven with, 1 against
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 5 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 2.9 wins, so it did +41.2 pts better than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +34.8 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+41.2 pts
Called / graded
5/5
Expected from price
2.9
Flagged volume
$315.1k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±19.4 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$160k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 5 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Sep at 33¢) and the edge is +34.8 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
100% vs 36% · n=2
40–60¢
100% vs 49% · n=1
80–100¢
100% vs 86% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$125.0k
Last 30 days −$100.4k · $961.8k volume · 147 trades · since Dec 16, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$227.9k
Open P&L · 21 positions
−$103.3k
Closed-position win rate
68%
28 closed
Wallet age · markets
312d
49 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 5 | 5 | 2.9 | +41.2 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | MED BUY Yes @ 87¢ | $115.1k 2.6× usual |
called |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | MED BUY Yes @ 86¢ | $112.2k 2.5× usual |
called |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 49¢ | $44.8k | called |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 33¢ | $22.9k | called |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 39¢ | $20.0k | called |
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