← Wallets
+$4,686No · avg 95.3¢ → 97.8¢ · $191.4k+$2,035No · avg 93.8¢ → 96.8¢ · $67.6k+$1,430No · avg 94.6¢ → 98¢ · $41.7k+$2,886No · avg 89¢ → 97.2¢ · $35.5k+$8,538No · avg 50¢ → 79¢ · $23.0k+$811No · avg 91.6¢ → 95.7¢ · $19.2k+$883Yes · avg 88¢ → 94.5¢ · $12.8k · 1 proven with, 0 against+$657No · avg 91.7¢ → 97¢ · $11.9k
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?excluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?excluded
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 2.7 wins, so it did +10.5 pts better than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Open bets: who else is there
Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.
Yes · Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
Same side: 1 proven · 0 losing Other side: 1 proven · 0 losing
Price-adjusted edge
+10.5 pts
Called / graded
3/3
Expected from price
2.7
Flagged volume
$393.5k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±17.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$81.4k
Last 30 days +$2,046 · $5.21M volume · 2,998 trades · since Sep 15, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$66.3k
Open P&L · 46 positions
+$13.6k
Closed-position win rate
77%
221 closed
Wallet age · markets
770d
252 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 3 | 3 | 2.7 | +10.5 pts |
History
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?excludedBUY No @ 99.8¢$32.7k
LOW allenzzz · 177d ago
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?excludedBUY No @ 99.7¢$15.0k
LOW allenzzz · 178d ago
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