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+$54.0kYes · avg 60¢ → 93.5¢ · $151.9k · 1 proven with, 0 against+$31Yes · avg 2.8¢ → 2.9¢ · $523
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 6. The prices it paid implied about 3.8 wins, so it did +3.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 6 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -1.8 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+3.0 pts
Called / graded
4/6
Expected from price
3.8
Flagged volume
$451.4k
Sample size6 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±14.0 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$7k6 graded bets in the order they resolved · 4 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July at 73¢) and the edge is -1.8 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 13% · n=1
20–40¢
0% vs 21% · n=1
60–80¢
100% vs 73% · n=1
80–100¢
100% vs 92% · n=3
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$87.6k
Last 30 days +$57.1k · $3.02M volume · 2,597 trades · since Oct 07, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$50.2k
Open P&L · 12 positions
+$44.0k
Closed-position win rate
54%
104 closed
Wallet age · markets
382d
110 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 4 | 3 | 2.8 | +5.6 pts |
| Other | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | -2.2 pts |
History
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