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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did -43.1 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-43.1 pts
Called / graded
0/2
Expected from price
0.9
Flagged volume
$57.9k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±34.9 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$81.9k
Last 30 days +$0 · $760.7k volume · 9 trades · since Sep 09, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$0
Open P&L · 4 positions
−$79.4k
Closed-position win rate
—
0 closed
Wallet age · markets
45d
4 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 2 | 0 | 0.9 | -43.1 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | MED BUY No @ 39¢ | $10.0k | missed |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | MED BUY No @ 47¢ | $47.9k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x5048e9…