funnyday

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did +12.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?−$52No · avg 96¢ → 95¢ · $5,418 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?+$7Yes · avg 95.2¢ → 96.5¢ · $579 Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.95% in October?−$102Yes · avg 71¢ → 58¢ · $464 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?+$134Yes · avg 30¢ → 94.5¢ · $198 · 1 proven with, 0 against Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027?+$6No · avg 93.8¢ → 96.8¢ · $194 Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.60% in October?+$7No · avg 94¢ → 97.8¢ · $175 Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% before 2027?−$78Yes · avg 74¢ → 48¢ · $143 Wizards vs. Bulls+$7Bulls · avg 49¢ → 52¢ · $105

Price-adjusted edge

+12.0 pts

Called / graded

1/1

Expected from price

0.9

Flagged volume

$96.8k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±32.5 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$35.1k

Last 30 days +$1,493 · $17.07M volume · 51,677 trades · since Jan 10, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L · recent 500 closed

+$698.5k

Open P&L · 493 positions

−$31.6k

Closed-position win rate

100%

500 closed

Wallet age · markets

1018d

10811 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Economy	1	1	0.9	+12.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 88¢	$44.0k	88%	38d ago	excluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 88¢	$52.8k	88%	39d ago	called

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY Yes @ 88¢$44.0k

LOW funnyday · 38d ago

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?called

BUY Yes @ 88¢$52.8k

LOW funnyday · 39d ago

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