← Wallets
−$5,607No · avg 69¢ → 64¢ · $89.5k+$347No · avg 74¢ → 74¢ · $51.3k+$702No · avg 69¢ → 70¢ · $44.6k−$2,724Yes · avg 69¢ → 64¢ · $41.9k+$566Yes · avg 69¢ → 70¢ · $37.5k+$950Yes · avg 82¢ → 91.5¢ · $9,150+$58Yes · avg 53¢ → 53¢ · $8,002+$525No · avg 81¢ → 91.5¢ · $4,575
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 1.3 wins, so it did -5.1 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-5.1 pts
Called / graded
1/5
Expected from price
1.3
Flagged volume
$763.6k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±13.4 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$55k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 1 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Sept at 88¢) and the edge is -9.4 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 9% · n=4
80–100¢
100% vs 88% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$130.2k
Last 30 days −$1,274 · $11.27M volume · 4,954 trades · since Sep 30, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$48.0k
Open P&L · 21 positions
−$229.6k
Closed-position win rate
72%
93 closed
Wallet age · markets
754d
108 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 5 | 1 | 1.3 | -5.1 pts |
History
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