b2d0

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.8 wins, so it did +7.5 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?+$1,250Yes · avg 92¢ → 94.5¢ · $47.2k · 1 proven with, 0 against

Price-adjusted edge

+7.5 pts

Called / graded

2/2

Expected from price

1.8

Flagged volume

$364.9k

Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.5 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$144.0k

Last 30 days −$250 · $1.74M volume · 2,422 trades · since Sep 30, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$144.2k

Open P&L · 1 positions

+$1,250

Closed-position win rate

50%

18 closed

Wallet age · markets

389d

12 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Economy	2	2	1.8	+7.5 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 90¢	$99.5k 3.4× usual	90%	38d ago	called
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL Yes @ 63¢	$10.3k	37%	102d ago	missed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 91¢	$114.6k 4.0× usual	91%	112d ago	called
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.6¢	$80.1k 2.8× usual	100%	129d ago	excluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 94¢	$19.7k	94%	130d ago	called
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 97.4¢	$28.9k	97%	149d ago	excluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 95¢	$11.8k	95%	219d ago	called

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?called

BUY Yes @ 90¢$99.5k

MED b2d0 · 38d ago

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?missed

SELL Yes @ 63¢$10.3k

LOW b2d0 · 102d ago

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?called

BUY Yes @ 91¢$114.6k

MED b2d0 · 112d ago

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.6¢$80.1k

LOW b2d0 · 129d ago

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?called

BUY Yes @ 94¢$19.7k

LOW b2d0 · 130d ago

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY Yes @ 97.4¢$28.9k

LOW b2d0 · 149d ago

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?called

BUY Yes @ 95¢$11.8k

LOW b2d0 · 219d ago

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