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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 8 of 9. The prices it paid implied about 6.6 wins, so it did +15.3 pts better than the market expected. That's only 9 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +12.7 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+15.3 pts
Called / graded
8/9
Expected from price
6.6
Flagged volume
$1.95M
Sample size9 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±14.3 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$372k9 graded bets in the order they resolved · 8 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-09-17? at 64¢) and the edge is +12.7 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
0% vs 57% · n=1
60–80¢
100% vs 71% · n=6
80–100¢
100% vs 90% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$373.8k
Last 30 days −$52.8k · $3.72M volume · 664 trades · since Aug 13, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$661.8k
Open P&L · 3 positions
−$275.0k
Closed-position win rate
100%
8 closed
Wallet age · markets
71d
11 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 5 | 4 | 3.5 | +9.4 pts |
| Politics | 4 | 4 | 3.1 | +22.7 pts |
History
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x369f46…