← Wallets
+$97.5kYes · avg 3.1¢ → 84¢ · $101.2k+$22.8kYes · avg 20¢ → 66¢ · $32.8k · 2 proven with, 0 against+$303Yes · avg 71¢ → 72¢ · $30.2k+$125No · avg 92¢ → 92.5¢ · $23.1k+$262No · avg 70¢ → 72¢ · $13.5k · 1 proven with, 0 against+$2,750Yes · avg 20¢ → 26¢ · $12.8k+$1,477No · avg 68¢ → 90¢ · $6,054+$2,000No · avg 35¢ → 55¢ · $5,467
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 7 of 10. The prices it paid implied about 6.6 wins, so it did +4.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 10 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -1.2 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Open bets: who else is there
Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.
None of its 1 open bets has a proven or losing wallet on either side yet.
Price-adjusted edge
+4.0 pts
Called / graded
7/10
Expected from price
6.6
Flagged volume
$746.3k
Sample size10 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±13.1 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$72810 graded bets in the order they resolved · 7 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? at 49¢) and the edge is -1.2 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 17% · n=1
20–40¢
0% vs 39% · n=1
40–60¢
100% vs 53% · n=2
60–80¢
100% vs 80% · n=1
80–100¢
80% vs 83% · n=5
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$486.5k
Last 30 days +$53.3k · $19.14M volume · 31,283 trades · since May 10, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$970.9k
Open P&L · 89 positions
+$13.0k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
533d
1007 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 7 | 5 | 4.5 | +7.5 pts |
| Economy | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | +19.0 pts |
| Politics | 2 | 1 | 1.3 | -16.0 pts |
History
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