Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$22
Return on staked
-2.2%
Bets
7/10 won
Edge vs price
+4.0 pts ±13.1
Consistency check. Older half of bets: +11.3 pts (3/5). Newer half: -3.4 pts (4/5). The edge has faded in recent bets.
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Mar 27, 23:55 EDTSep 11, 09:52 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 81¢ | called | 43d ago |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | 83¢ | called | 95d ago |
| Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? | 93¢ | called | 108d ago |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | 80¢ | missed | 132d ago |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | 80¢ | called | 134d ago |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | 80¢ | called | 134d ago |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | 39¢ | missed | 142d ago |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | 58¢ | called | 154d ago |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | 49¢ | called | 154d ago |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | 17¢ | missed | 210d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.