← Wallets
+$14.9kYes · avg 68¢ → 85¢ · $72.7k+$282No · avg 96.9¢ → 98¢ · $24.5k+$536Yes · avg 84¢ → 86¢ · $21.2k+$361Yes · avg 90.7¢ → 92.8¢ · $16.5k+$159Yes · avg 84¢ → 84¢ · $13.8k−$1,027Yes · avg 65¢ → 60¢ · $12.4k+$228No · avg 93¢ → 94.8¢ · $11.8k−$1,551Yes · avg 40¢ → 36¢ · $11.0k
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?pending
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?called
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?excluded
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 7. The prices it paid implied about 4.1 wins, so it did -16.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Open bets: who else is there
Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.
No · Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Same side: 1 proven · 0 losing Other side: 0 proven · 0 losing
Price-adjusted edge
-16.0 pts
Called / graded
3/7
Expected from price
4.1
Flagged volume
$1.06M
Sample size7 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±14.0 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$71k7 graded bets in the order they resolved · 3 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? at 77¢) and the edge is -22.4 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 5% · n=1
20–40¢
0% vs 34% · n=2
60–80¢
50% vs 76% · n=2
80–100¢
100% vs 93% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$1.09M
Last 30 days +$191.4k · $104.18M volume · 132,234 trades · since Mar 23, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$3.62M
Open P&L · 95 positions
−$16.3k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
580d
1349 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +7.1 pts |
| Other | 6 | 2 | 3.2 | -19.8 pts |
History
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?pendingBUY Yes @ 96¢$10.8k
LOW classified · 3d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?calledSELL No @ 71¢$16.4k
LOW classified · 135d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?calledBUY Yes @ 50¢$10.8k
LOW classified · 149d ago
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?excludedSELL Yes @ 99.9¢$31.0k
LOW classified · 167d ago
Share this record
<a href="https://whalegrader.com/wallet/0x12d6cccfc7470a3f4bafc53599a4779cbf2cf2a8"><img src="https://whalegrader.com/badge/wallet/0x12d6cccfc7470a3f4bafc53599a4779cbf2cf2a8.svg" alt="WhaleGrader record"></a>
JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x12d6cc…