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+$4,277Bengals · avg 53¢ → 62¢ · $29.9k−$398Spurs · avg 86¢ → 84¢ · $20.4k−$108Nuggets · avg 80¢ → 80¢ · $12.3k−$607Over · avg 49¢ → 46¢ · $11.3k−$1,073Rockets · avg 49¢ → 44¢ · $10.3k · 0 proven with, 1 against+$101Raiders · avg 38¢ → 38¢ · $7,700−$130Over · avg 49¢ → 48¢ · $7,656+$586Hawks · avg 51¢ → 56¢ · $7,224 · 1 proven with, 0 against
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 6. The prices it paid implied about 3.3 wins, so it did -4.8 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 6 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-4.8 pts
Called / graded
3/6
Expected from price
3.3
Flagged volume
$704.7k
Sample size6 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±19.4 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$96k6 graded bets in the order they resolved · 3 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Bengals vs. Texans at 43¢) and the edge is -17.1 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 34% · n=1
40–60¢
33% vs 49% · n=3
60–80¢
100% vs 73% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$84.4k
Last 30 days −$373.8k · $122.79M volume · 333,299 trades · since Jan 22, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$13.19M
Open P&L · 500 positions
−$1.97M
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
275d
9107 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 6 | 3 | 3.3 | -4.8 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Texans vs. Jaguars | LOW BUY Texans @ 44¢ | $13.2k | excluded |
| Cardinals vs. Giants | LOW BUY Cardinals @ 56¢ | $23.2k | excluded |
| Cardinals vs. Giants | LOW BUY Cardinals @ 56¢ | $17.7k | missed |
| Colts vs. Commanders | LOW BUY Commanders @ 34¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
| Colts vs. Commanders | LOW BUY Commanders @ 34¢ | $11.0k | missed |
| Eagles vs. Titans | LOW BUY Eagles @ 75¢ | $67.5k 4.7× usual |
excluded |
| Panthers vs. Falcons | LOW BUY Falcons @ 46¢ | $13.3k | excluded |
| Eagles vs. Titans | LOW BUY Eagles @ 75¢ | $23.5k | called |
| Bengals vs. Texans | LOW BUY Bengals @ 43¢ | $15.9k | called |
| Lions vs. Bills | HIGH BUY Bills @ 72¢ | $267.8k 18.5× usual |
called |
| 49ers vs. Rams | MED BUY Rams @ 65¢ | $176.3k 12.2× usual |
excluded |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | LOW BUY Seahawks @ 68¢ | $11.9k | excluded |
| Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | LOW BUY Patriots @ 49¢ | $10.2k | missed |
| Rams vs. Seahawks | LOW BUY Seahawks @ 56¢ | $14.1k | excluded |
| Patriots vs. Broncos | LOW BUY Broncos @ 35¢ | $14.8k | missed |
| Patriots vs. Broncos | LOW BUY Patriots @ 68¢ | $12.2k | called |
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