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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did -44.1 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-44.1 pts
Called / graded
0/2
Expected from price
0.9
Flagged volume
$105.9k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±34.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$78.7k
Last 30 days +$0 · $667.4k volume · 311 trades · since Jan 02, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$78.7k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
17%
24 closed
Wallet age · markets
—
18 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 2 | 0 | 0.9 | -44.1 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 37¢ | $28.1k | missed |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | MED BUY No @ 51¢ | $77.8k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x3f6c7f…