lomneivan

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.8 wins, so it did +21.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?−$14.0kNo · avg 86¢ → 80¢ · $167.9k Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?−$16.2kYes · avg 69¢ → 61¢ · $116.2k 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House+$69.3kYes · avg 9¢ → 26¢ · $107.1k Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?−$7,349Yes · avg 86¢ → 80¢ · $96.4k Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?−$47.8kNo · avg 50¢ → 32¢ · $90.3k · 0 proven with, 1 against Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?−$11.7kNo · avg 70¢ → 62¢ · $84.3k Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?−$21.1kNo · avg 60¢ → 47¢ · $78.9k Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?−$32.3kNo · avg 45¢ → 31¢ · $73.9k

Price-adjusted edge

+21.0 pts

Called / graded

1/1

Expected from price

0.8

Flagged volume

$417.6k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±40.7 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$58.5k

Last 30 days −$113.2k · $6.41M volume · 4,383 trades · since Mar 22, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$271.2k

Open P&L · 42 positions

−$311.0k

Closed-position win rate

79%

58 closed

Wallet age · markets

216d

90 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Economy	1	1	0.8	+21.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 79¢	$49.6k	79%	42d ago	called
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 85¢	$18.4k	85%	137d ago	excluded
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	MED SELL Yes @ 64¢	$73.4k	36%	191d ago	missed
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 62¢	$56.2k	62%	192d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	MED SELL No @ 98.1¢	$148.0k 2.3× usual	2%	192d ago	excluded
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	LOW BUY No @ 95¢	$72.1k	95%	194d ago	excluded

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?called

BUY Yes @ 79¢$49.6k

LOW lomneivan · 42d ago

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?excluded

BUY Yes @ 85¢$18.4k

LOW lomneivan · 137d ago

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?missed

SELL Yes @ 64¢$73.4k

MED lomneivan · 191d ago

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?called

BUY Yes @ 62¢$56.2k

LOW lomneivan · 192d ago

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?excluded

SELL No @ 98.1¢$148.0k

MED lomneivan · 192d ago

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?excluded

BUY No @ 95¢$72.1k

LOW lomneivan · 194d ago

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