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+$40.6kYes · avg 84¢ → 93.5¢ · $393.0k · 1 proven with, 0 against−$2,082Yes · avg 85¢ → 80¢ · $34.7k+$223Yes · avg 69¢ → 76¢ · $2,516
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 7 of 7. The prices it paid implied about 6.1 wins, so it did +12.4 pts better than the market expected. That's only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +11.1 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Open bets: who else is there
Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.
Yes · Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
Same side: 1 proven · 0 losing Other side: 1 proven · 0 losing
Price-adjusted edge
+12.4 pts
Called / graded
7/7
Expected from price
6.1
Flagged volume
$990.8k
Sample size7 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±12.3 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$51k7 graded bets in the order they resolved · 7 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Sep at 80¢) and the edge is +11.1 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
80–100¢
100% vs 88% · n=7
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$331.6k
Last 30 days +$47.8k · $14.36M volume · 14,053 trades · since Jun 09, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 406 closed
+$538.3k
Open P&L · 172 positions
−$187.5k
Closed-position win rate
68%
406 closed
Wallet age · markets
867d
420 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 7 | 7 | 6.1 | +12.4 pts |
History
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