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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 7 of 7. The prices it paid implied about 4.2 wins, so it did +40.7 pts better than the market expected. That's only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +39.6 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+40.7 pts
Called / graded
7/7
Expected from price
4.2
Flagged volume
$166.2k
Sample size7 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.3 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$106k7 graded bets in the order they resolved · 7 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Sept at 53¢) and the edge is +39.6 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
100% vs 54% · n=5
60–80¢
100% vs 72% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$142.9k
Last 30 days +$0 · $1.02M volume · 56 trades · since Sep 08, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$148.3k
Open P&L · 1 positions
−$5,179
Closed-position win rate
100%
1 closed
Wallet age · markets
46d
2 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 7 | 7 | 4.2 | +40.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | MED BUY No @ 79¢ | $51.4k 2.7× usual |
called |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | MED BUY No @ 64¢ | $16.1k | called |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | MED BUY No @ 55¢ | $19.2k | called |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | MED BUY No @ 55¢ | $18.7k | called |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | MED BUY No @ 55¢ | $13.8k | called |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | HIGH BUY No @ 54¢ | $29.6k | called |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | MED BUY No @ 53¢ | $17.4k | called |
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